Koren or Larry?
paper or plastic? the first few picks of our keeper league have been made -- we set a twelve hour limit on the email selections -- i held up our draft for a few hours debating the relative merits of koren robinson versus larry fitzgerald. but back to that in a second. with the first overall pick, ping made a surprise selection in kevin jones (rookie running back of the lions). i myself was eyeing mr jones for my first rounder (second overall) but i was really most interested in grabbing an emerging wide receiver. i thought for sure that ping would grab koren robinson, since he was the consensus "top player available," but the draft is all about surprises.
with the top three picks of our supplemental draft, three rookies were selected. which seems somewhat unprecedented. most rookies -- even the ones that look great -- are questionable at best. nobody knows who will succeed and who will fail, so most teams keep the gambling for later rounds. but for teams that have the dubious honor of an early pick, they need stars, and what better way than to grab a highly touted NFL freshman? most years, a few rookies will emerge as bonafide stars, as i mentioned before, but i think that last year's very successful rookie class has raised irrational high hopes for this year. combine this with multiple job opportunites for rookies and the market has been quick to invest their high risk stocks. especially in wide receivers -- last year's class of anquan boldin, charles rogers, andre johnson and others -- who are the most volatile rookie selections of all.
after ping took kevin jones, my choices immediately narrowed to koren robinson or larry fitzgerald. larry is, arguably, the premier wide receiver of his class while koren has the enviable mix of talent, experience and situation to succeed on a pro bowl scale. the rest of the names i considered to be "potential impact players" at wide receiver were rated much lower than koren. jerry porter, donte stallworth, chris chambers, reggie wayne are all young receivers who could be up and coming but have so far, not produced with any consistency. koren has one superb season under his belt (78 receptions, 1240 yards and 5 TDs in 2002) and a a few years of experience. the problem is that last year he was a terrible WR and the biggest bust in the wide receiver department. he wasn't even the best pass catcher on his roster and was plagued with consistency problems and dropped balls. even in a top ten offense, koren wasn't able to have one explosive game in 2003. but oh the potential.
larry fitzgerald has been said to be the best WR to enter the game since randy moss. he was clearly the best player in college last year and he has all the technical and physical skill to succeed in the NFL. his only knock is that he's not blazing fast, but that was the tag jerry rice took with him to the pros. fitzgerald got a huge contract, landed with a head coach that loves him, and seem primed for success. the problem? the rookie of the year last year resides on his team, mr anquan boldin. another number one draft pick, 2002's bryant johnson, is also fighting for playing time on the cardinals and both could potentially take away from the fantasy impact of fitzgerald. plus, the cardinals suck, with an unproven quarterback and the venerable emmitt smith in the backfield. not exactly a recipe for success. the man responsible for high scoring teams in minnesota, dennis green, was hired by the cardinals to rebuild the team but how much difference can one man make? let's hope a lot. because i drafted fitzgerald over koren, a move that i might regret, but i dont' want to miss out on the next jerry rice.
i understand now, how pro teams might be caught up in the excitement of potential and word of mouth on a particular player. getting onto the bandwagon has led to some outstanding bad picks over the years -- darko milicic anyone? -- but i can see how this happens. i wasn't originally interested in fitzgerald in the first round. my eyes only had koren in my sights. but word spread that a team after me really coveted fitzgerald and if i was to get my hands on him, i would have to go early and grab him now. everyone said to take koren (based on logic: he has a better team, a better QB and a much better running game) but i thought i had to follow through on my goal to swing for the fences.
my reasoning was this: even if fitzgerald sucks this year, his trade value should still be high next year, because most rookies suffer through some growing pains. if koren has another bad year, he's written into the margins of fantasy history as a one year wonder, with no value whatsoever. should fitzgerald pan out, i get a top five WR in two or three years. if he doesn't i've lost a delicious gamble. my plan this year is to take 5-6 WRs on my roster and hope for three of them to succeed spectacularly. with joe horn, plaxico burress, ashley lelie and other picks still to come, i thought i had the insurance on hand to gamble a bit. plus, i have few designs on winning this year; my immediate goal is to unearth stars. if fitzgerald shows flashes of all pro ability and nets only forty catches and a few hundred yards in 2004, i'll be happy.
i'm setting up my roster this season for my championship next year, and the year after that. the owners of my team (ie. me) is well organized, strategic and rooted in reality. plus we have a bankroll the size of california, well, not really. anyway, in order to rebuild, i believe you have to stockpile commodities and move from a position of strength, and nothing sells like potential and youth. being stuck in a "semi-contending, semi-rebuilding" year can confuse your fan base and your general manager, you need an overall vision to succeed in this game. luckily, i have one. my plan is to strip mine the earth and then hoard the riches for use at a later date. no veterans, no declining players, no sense drafting players whose potential has already been tapped. i want fresh blood and fresh faces.
of course, koren isn't an old goat himself but the risk of passing up fitzgerald's talent was too high. i personally think koren will have a tremendous season and emerge as a top ten WR, but who knows what might happen with him down the road? i can't even believe that i'm agonizing this much over koren robinson, who was the biggest dog last season. koren robinson! by picking a rookie, i'm willing to roll the dice with my season, and it looks like my fellow bottom dwellers are too. first three picks: (1) kevin jones (2) larry fitzgerald (3) julius jones. the allure of a young breakout star was just too much to pass up i guess.
i'm still working hard to get koren because after some detailed analysis, i've decided he might drop to the bottom of the first round (the teams behind me have different needs on their teams). if this happens, i'm hoping to slide up to get both of my coveted receivers. wish me luck, the draft has begun, cowboy the fuck up.
with the top three picks of our supplemental draft, three rookies were selected. which seems somewhat unprecedented. most rookies -- even the ones that look great -- are questionable at best. nobody knows who will succeed and who will fail, so most teams keep the gambling for later rounds. but for teams that have the dubious honor of an early pick, they need stars, and what better way than to grab a highly touted NFL freshman? most years, a few rookies will emerge as bonafide stars, as i mentioned before, but i think that last year's very successful rookie class has raised irrational high hopes for this year. combine this with multiple job opportunites for rookies and the market has been quick to invest their high risk stocks. especially in wide receivers -- last year's class of anquan boldin, charles rogers, andre johnson and others -- who are the most volatile rookie selections of all.
after ping took kevin jones, my choices immediately narrowed to koren robinson or larry fitzgerald. larry is, arguably, the premier wide receiver of his class while koren has the enviable mix of talent, experience and situation to succeed on a pro bowl scale. the rest of the names i considered to be "potential impact players" at wide receiver were rated much lower than koren. jerry porter, donte stallworth, chris chambers, reggie wayne are all young receivers who could be up and coming but have so far, not produced with any consistency. koren has one superb season under his belt (78 receptions, 1240 yards and 5 TDs in 2002) and a a few years of experience. the problem is that last year he was a terrible WR and the biggest bust in the wide receiver department. he wasn't even the best pass catcher on his roster and was plagued with consistency problems and dropped balls. even in a top ten offense, koren wasn't able to have one explosive game in 2003. but oh the potential.
larry fitzgerald has been said to be the best WR to enter the game since randy moss. he was clearly the best player in college last year and he has all the technical and physical skill to succeed in the NFL. his only knock is that he's not blazing fast, but that was the tag jerry rice took with him to the pros. fitzgerald got a huge contract, landed with a head coach that loves him, and seem primed for success. the problem? the rookie of the year last year resides on his team, mr anquan boldin. another number one draft pick, 2002's bryant johnson, is also fighting for playing time on the cardinals and both could potentially take away from the fantasy impact of fitzgerald. plus, the cardinals suck, with an unproven quarterback and the venerable emmitt smith in the backfield. not exactly a recipe for success. the man responsible for high scoring teams in minnesota, dennis green, was hired by the cardinals to rebuild the team but how much difference can one man make? let's hope a lot. because i drafted fitzgerald over koren, a move that i might regret, but i dont' want to miss out on the next jerry rice.
i understand now, how pro teams might be caught up in the excitement of potential and word of mouth on a particular player. getting onto the bandwagon has led to some outstanding bad picks over the years -- darko milicic anyone? -- but i can see how this happens. i wasn't originally interested in fitzgerald in the first round. my eyes only had koren in my sights. but word spread that a team after me really coveted fitzgerald and if i was to get my hands on him, i would have to go early and grab him now. everyone said to take koren (based on logic: he has a better team, a better QB and a much better running game) but i thought i had to follow through on my goal to swing for the fences.
my reasoning was this: even if fitzgerald sucks this year, his trade value should still be high next year, because most rookies suffer through some growing pains. if koren has another bad year, he's written into the margins of fantasy history as a one year wonder, with no value whatsoever. should fitzgerald pan out, i get a top five WR in two or three years. if he doesn't i've lost a delicious gamble. my plan this year is to take 5-6 WRs on my roster and hope for three of them to succeed spectacularly. with joe horn, plaxico burress, ashley lelie and other picks still to come, i thought i had the insurance on hand to gamble a bit. plus, i have few designs on winning this year; my immediate goal is to unearth stars. if fitzgerald shows flashes of all pro ability and nets only forty catches and a few hundred yards in 2004, i'll be happy.
i'm setting up my roster this season for my championship next year, and the year after that. the owners of my team (ie. me) is well organized, strategic and rooted in reality. plus we have a bankroll the size of california, well, not really. anyway, in order to rebuild, i believe you have to stockpile commodities and move from a position of strength, and nothing sells like potential and youth. being stuck in a "semi-contending, semi-rebuilding" year can confuse your fan base and your general manager, you need an overall vision to succeed in this game. luckily, i have one. my plan is to strip mine the earth and then hoard the riches for use at a later date. no veterans, no declining players, no sense drafting players whose potential has already been tapped. i want fresh blood and fresh faces.
of course, koren isn't an old goat himself but the risk of passing up fitzgerald's talent was too high. i personally think koren will have a tremendous season and emerge as a top ten WR, but who knows what might happen with him down the road? i can't even believe that i'm agonizing this much over koren robinson, who was the biggest dog last season. koren robinson! by picking a rookie, i'm willing to roll the dice with my season, and it looks like my fellow bottom dwellers are too. first three picks: (1) kevin jones (2) larry fitzgerald (3) julius jones. the allure of a young breakout star was just too much to pass up i guess.
i'm still working hard to get koren because after some detailed analysis, i've decided he might drop to the bottom of the first round (the teams behind me have different needs on their teams). if this happens, i'm hoping to slide up to get both of my coveted receivers. wish me luck, the draft has begun, cowboy the fuck up.
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